Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Ten Fantasy Football Busts To Avoid In 2013

Ok, so I was only five, maybe six out of ten right about my busts last year, and I ignored my own advice on MoJo Drew, but I feel like I'll do much better this year. Here are my Ten Fantasy Football Busts for 2013. No real order is needed here, a bust is a bust after all. A couple of these will be the obvious ones everyone in the Universe making a list will include, but I think there will be a couple of surprises, too.

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos. Montee Ball scored over 6000 touchdowns at Wisconsin. It's a fact.  And there will be a slew of touchdowns to be scored in Denver this year. Peyton Manning won't be running any quarterback sneaks anytime soon, and Ronnie Hillman won't be getting any goal line vultures, so what's to keep Ball from a 10 touchdown rookie season? Nothing, I guess. I just don't feel like he will. Too many weapons for Manning inside the ten yard line. Plus, even in non-keeper leagues you'll be using a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Ball. I'd let someone else do that.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts. I wanted to find a picture of Bradshaw pass blocking, because even if he does play this year that will be his primary function. But he won't be playing much this year. Even if he did, I doubt he'll ever be used in a way that showcases his talents. If he even really has any as a runner, because I saw him stuffed time after time last year for the Giants. You won't be getting a bargain on him, either, in the fourth or fifth round. leave him there.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans. Foster had a great year last year, but it never seemed like he was plunging a spear in my side when I played against him. And the miles piled up. When his tires blow they'll be blowing on a top 5 draft pick. Too much of a risk. My caution with Foster isn't that he's not a first rounder, it's that of the cluster of top tier running backs I think he carries the most risk. Go with one of the other elite running backs. 

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins. Conehead says it all. Miami says whatever the conehead doesn't. he's not going to be catching touchdowns in Miami. There aren't going to be many touchdowns in Miami. And he's got a conehead. 

James Jones. Green Bay Packers. Is it possible he'll catch double digit touchdowns again this year? No, not really. Even when he did catch his clusters of touchdowns last year I can almost guarantee you weren't playing him. You couldn't. He's a fantasy assassin. Unless you end up playing against him on one of his three touchdown games just be grateful someone else rostered him.

Matt Forte. Chicago Bears. Unless you watch all the Bears games, you probably don't realize Matt Forte could be kept out of the endzone on a goaline run by my grandmother. He can't take the ball in, and it's not a fluke, it's a career-long issue. He won't be getting many goaline carries this year, either, and if he doesn't break off those two or three long screen pass touchdowns he's good for every year he's actually not good for much. Certainly not a 2nd round pick.

Percy Harvin. Seattle Seahawks. Two years ago I went all in on Percy Harvin, which is to say I used mainly fifth round picks to draft him in several leagues. And he did what he always has done: got hurt. Last year I avoided him, but was wary of his ability to ruin my week on someone else's team. And he started the season on an MVP clip. Then he did what Percy Harvin always does... he got hurt. Could he go wire to wire like a house on fire and make everyone who drafts him a playoff contender? Sure. Will he? Meh.

Stevan Ridley. New England Patriots. The Patriots have never been good to me in fantasy football. In fact, by the time I even started playing fantasy football the Patriots had fielded their last fantasy relevant running back. Reasoning does no good when applied to The Hoodie's team. There should be a boatload of red zone touchdown to go around this year. And Ridley should once again get a lion's share of them. But he probably won't. Welcome to Hoodie Logic 101.

Brandon Marshall. Chicago Bears. Marshall made a fool of his critics last year. He had previously made them into sages. But there's one factor alone that makes Marshall ripe to be a bust this year, aside from injury, and that is he just doesn't catch touchdowns. He did last year. But will he this year with the Bears receiving corps adding nothing to take the pressure off him? Maybe. But as a 2nd round pick, and most likely your number one receiver he'd have to to justify your pick. 

Dennis Pitta. Baltimore Ravens. Funny to see you here, Dennis Pitta. You're rocketing up the charts, and by the time real drafts start you'll probably be the number four or five tight end off the board. The bottom line on tight end is even since the current obsession with the tall, athletic tight end, there just have been very few dominant fantasy seasons put up at that position. One or two per year. I don't see this guy having one of those seasons. 

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  1. Already got a couple of them right even before the preseason started. Good work.

  2. Watching Matt Forte in the preseason, I think this may be the year when he scores ten touchdowns. I just ignored my own advice and drafted him in the first round of a draft.


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